Today, 4:52 PM
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
Bonds ended up selling off somewhat sharply today with...
Today, 11:00 AM
Bonds mostly lost ground in the overnight session, and then lost just a bit more ground after the 8:30am econ data. This consisted of Jobless Claims ...
Wed, May 7 2025, 4:34 PM
Just as Underwhelming as Expected
No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even...
Wed, May 7 2025, 2:00 PM
Recent Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pa...
Wed, May 7 2025, 11:04 AM
Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular rea...
Tue, May 6 2025, 4:10 PM
10yr Auction to The Rescue
Today's 10yr Treasury auction was the only relevant calendar event in terms of po...
Tue, May 6 2025, 10:37 AM
Bonds have been on both sides of unchanged so far today. The overnight session began with slightly higher yields followed by a gradual rally. By 9am ...
Mon, May 5 2025, 4:30 PM
Selling Spree Continues, But Gently
Bonds were focused on this morning's ISM Services Index with some trader...
Mon, May 5 2025, 10:29 AM
The ISM Services PMI is this morning's key data, and arguably, the most relevant economic report of the week. Last week's ISM Manufacturing data wasn'...
Fri, May 2 2025, 4:17 PM
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
Bonds definitely paused their long term relationship with econ...
Fri, May 2 2025, 10:29 AM
It is shaping up to be a straightforward morning for the bond market. There was a justified and logical amount of anticipation for today's numbers and...
Thu, May 1 2025, 4:19 PM
Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility
Today's ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canar...
Thu, May 1 2025, 11:26 AM
2 weeks ago, we got our first hint that the market was once again ready to respond to economic data after a few weeks of tariff headlines being the on...
Wed, Apr 30 2025, 4:51 PM
Action Packed Calendar But No Major Action in Bonds
This morning's economic calendar was certainly the most ...
Wed, Apr 30 2025, 11:31 AM
In terms of line items, Wednesday morning is the week's most active morning for economic reports. Several of them were potentially important, but the ...
Tue, Apr 29 2025, 4:20 PM
Trading Range Restored. Big Data on Deck
Today's trading was almost a carbon copy of yesterday's with overni...
Tue, Apr 29 2025, 10:50 AM
Once again, bonds were modestly weaker overnight and once again, that weakness is being reversed in early trading. Whereas scapegoats were nowhere to ...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 4:12 PM
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight but quickly moved into stron...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 11:39 AM
When getting a sense of what's happening in the bond market, it's frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on M...
Fri, Apr 25 2025, 5:09 PM
Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day
After being heavily conditioned to expect elevated volatility wi...
Fri, Apr 25 2025, 10:34 AM
Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the fin...
Thu, Apr 24 2025, 4:26 PM
Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons
Bonds improved moderately well overnight and added to those gains ste...
Thu, Apr 24 2025, 12:19 PM
What's "normal" for the bond market? That depends how far back you want to look. Starting in late February, we had about a month of mostly sideways m...
Wed, Apr 23 2025, 4:42 PM
Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data
Bonds started out sharply stronger toda...
Wed, Apr 23 2025, 10:17 AM
Two factors had been contributing more than others to drive bond yields higher as of yesterday. The broader, ongoing factor is/was the tariff/trade s...
Tue, Apr 22 2025, 4:37 PM
Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility
Shorter term bonds lost ground today while longer term bonds an...
Tue, Apr 22 2025, 11:07 AM
If there was an overriding theme last week, it was that the absence of new tariff drama helped the bond market recover some of the previous week's wea...
Mon, Apr 21 2025, 5:28 PM
Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons
Global financial markets partook in a slow motion train ...
Mon, Apr 21 2025, 10:38 AM
Heading into last week, we expected to be waiting until after the holiday weekend to get a better sense of the prevailing tone in financial markets. I...
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 4:55 PM
Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and very flat for most of the morning....
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 10:45 AM
The market and market participants could use a break after everything endured over the past 2 weeks. This holiday-shortened week turned out to provid...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 3:48 PM
Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks
You've seen it plenty of times so fa...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 11:35 AM
What a difference a week makes. The present example has been entirely different than the previous example in terms of volatility and directional movem...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 4:39 PM
Absence Makes the Bonds Grow Stronger
Bonds improved at a moderate pace for the 2nd day in a row, thus marki...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 11:24 AM
In the context of the past two weeks, the past two days have been an anomaly. Not only have bond yields been moving lower, but they've done so in rela...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 4:18 PM
Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Another Tariff Change
It was a low drama session for bonds with overnig...
Mon, Apr 14 2025, 10:10 AM
Friday afternoon's memorandum on tariff exclusions set the stage for stronger trading in stocks and bonds in the overnight session. Bonds rallied stea...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 5:03 PM
Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data
Bonds managed to recover modestly after the initial yield s...
Fri, Apr 11 2025, 12:38 PM
There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone who's alive to read these words, but unless your career began ...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 5:08 PM
The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real
Bonds sold off today, in spite of a very bond-friendly ...
Thu, Apr 10 2025, 11:49 AM
It feels very odd to label a report like CPI as "irrelevant," and to be fair, traders were still paying some attention, but the trading response, in g...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 5:38 PM
Bonds Have a Lot On Their Minds (And The Mega Reversal After The Tariff Pause)
There are actually too man...
Wed, Apr 9 2025, 9:14 AM
MBS are down the better part of a point and 10yr yields are up 14+ bps at 4.44%. Another huge loss that leaves market watchers grasping for answers. ...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 5:37 PM
Heavy Losses as Bonds Brace For Tougher Times
This morning's commentary suggested that "liberation day volat...
Tue, Apr 8 2025, 10:47 AM
The past 2 days of selling in the bond market may seem dramatic, but they make solid sense in the bigger picture. Trump's April 2nd "Liberation Day" w...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 5:47 PM
Explaining Monday's Wild Ride in The Bond Market
It was an extremely volatile, frustrating, and downright we...
Mon, Apr 7 2025, 12:02 PM
It's been an interesting Monday so far for the bond market (and stock market for that matter). Despite a big risk-off move (stocks and yields lower) t...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 5:19 PM
Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally
MBS ended Friday right about where they ended T...
Fri, Apr 4 2025, 11:37 AM
Despite today being "jobs report Friday," and despite the jobs report perennially having the power to cause big volatility for financial markets, over...
Thu, Apr 3 2025, 4:48 PM
Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day
On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that's going t...
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